Fri 29 October 2010
While the Victoria Derby will attract a lot of attention, it may play second fiddle to the Mackinnon Stakes which sees Cox Plate winner So You Think race against Melbourne Cup winner Shocking and a host of others.
My new racing and sports betting website, tomwaterhouse.com, remains solvent despite the best attempts of So You Think and his army of supporters to bankrupt me during the Spring Racing Carnival.
I may be out of my mind given his record but I am going to lay So You Think at Flemington on Saturday. So keen am I to get him in my book that I am offering the world’s best odds on him winning the Mackinnon Stakes.
I am going to lay So You Think because his connections, including Bart Cummings, have said that they are going to employ different tactics with half an eye on Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup over a longer distance.
Given the likely slow pace, forecast heavy track and tactical switch I think that So You Think is not worthy of being odds on.
My mum’s Caulfield Cup hero, Descarado, is the value bet of the race. He is proven on wet tracks and will love it if there is no pace in the race and he is able to bowl along in front. He is over the odds.
You can hear my thoughts on a number of Flemington races, including the Victoria Derby, in the latest edition of my video preview, The Smarts, which is available at my frequently updated betting blog.
The Smarts features The Knowledge, in which I give away Waterhouse family betting secrets, and Lay of the Day, in which I highlight a short-priced runner to avoid.
Good luck with your Victoria Derby Day bets and, also, your Melbourne Cup punts.
All the best,