Fri 21 January 2011
There are some good favourites and some bad favourites on Rosehill’s eight-race card that includes the Inglis Classic, a two-year-old contest worth $150,000 to the winner despite being a restricted event minus Black Type status.
It is hard to see past odds-on favourite Pane In The Glass. Very impressive in winning two from two at the tail end of last year, John Thompson’s exciting filly may have had more on her plate in those races than Saturday’s one.
According to the betting, Pure Force is the main threat to Pane In The Glass. Some people think that he was very unlucky not to break his maiden at Randwick last month but I think that he was beaten fair and square by Pane In The Glass and Jackpot Queen. I like the favourite.
Another Rosehill market leader that I think will win but at a better-value price is Ironstein, the top weight in the opening race. You can forget his last-start effort because he was not suited by the 1400-metre trip. He goes over an extra 500m on Saturday and is well weighted after the two-kilogram claim of talented apprentice jockey Blake Spriggs.
Whereas Ironstein is a good favourite, Storm Kite is a bad one. She is very short in the betting for a mare that has only one third to show for five runs at Rosehill and has not won beyond 1300m. Also, if the pace is slow as expected, she will be placed at another considerable disadvantage.
The video edition of The Smarts features my full analysis of the Inglis Classic, as well as the best race in Melbourne, the Kensington Stakes at Flemington.
All the best,