Fri 05 November 2010
THE SMARTS WITH TOM WATERHOUSE 05.11.10
The Melbourne Cup Carnival ends on Saturday and what a spectacular way for it to end – back-to-back Group One races, one for the sprinters and one for the milers.
The Patinack Farm Classic is being billed as a showdown between Peter Moody’s unbeaten mare Black Caviar, which is bidding for eight wins in a row, and John McNair’s Hay List, which is 12-1-0 in his 14-race career and yet to taste defeat in half-a-dozen starts over Saturday’s 1200-metre trip.
It is difficult to work out which way to jump based on the respective form of Black Caviar and Hay List but my bookmaking legend of a grandfather, Bill, has a proven system: when there are two runners under 2-1 – that is 3.00 in decimal odds – in a race, you should always back the longer priced one.
If Hay List is under 2-1 just before the off – Black Caviar is likely to be odds on – then get on him. If not, unload on his female rival. It is as simple as that.
The Emirates Stakes, which follows the Patinack Farm Classic, looks like a great race, particularly for bookmakers such as me, because it is hard to find a clear-cut favourite in the full-to-capacity field.
So much will depend on whether one or both of the first two emergencies – Gathering and Demerit – get into the race because they are natural leaders and, without at least one of them, the contest may not have any pace.
New Zealand champion Wall Street is likely to lead if neither Gathering nor Demerit gets promoted and he was a little unlucky behind So You Think in the Cox Plate.
Punters are coming for two runners – Palacio De Cristal and Rothera – but is a wide-open betting heat and one in which I am going to bet big and hope for a massive result.
I will return next Friday to preview more thoroughbred racing action. If you want to increase your betting IQ in the meantime, visit my frequently updated blog that contains the video version of The Smarts and much more.
All the best,
Tom Waterhouse
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